Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
